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By Tim Jennette

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In January of this year I wrote an article for this publication titled "What to expect in '08". Now that we have reached the half way point of 2008, I thought it would be a good idea to see how the economy is doing compared to what we expected to happen this year.

Are things going as predicted?
The U.S economy was expected to have a positive performance based on unemployment numbers remaining stable. So far the prediction has held. In December 2007 the U.S Department of Labor reported unemployment at five percent, the third lowest since 2000. As of June 2008 the U.S Department of Labor reported the current unemployment rate to be 5.5 percent. Still low and still within a good range based on recent history.

The financial services industry (banks and other leaders) was expected to continue to report bad news. Unfortunately, this prediction has also held. Seven banking institutions have failed this year with the most recent being First National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank, failing on July 25.

On July 13 the Atlanta Journal and Constitution printed an article titled "On List of Risky Banks, Georgia Companies Dominate". This article discussed a calculation known as the "Texas Ratio", which was developed during the Savings and Loan crisis 20 years ago, predicting a bank's likelihood of failing. Nine Georgia banks are in the top 25 on this list, with three banks in the top 10 and the number one spot being held by a Georgia Bank.

Additionally, I personally know of four people in either banking or real estate that have tragically taken their own lives in 2008.

The real estate market was predicted to come back in late 2008 to early 2009. Most likely this prediction will not hold, and the real estate market will be slower in coming back than originally expected. However, residential builders continue to decrease their housing starts with housing starts for June of 2008 27 percent less than starts for the same period in 2007. Year to date, housing starts are 29 percent below this time last year.

The economy has gotten worse before getting better, as predicted. Who could have ever guessed Starbucks would close 600 stores? Home repair centers such as Home Depot and Lowes continue to struggle, and I will not even attempt to explain what is going on at the gas pump.

So now what?
Now that we are half way through the year and see that the economy is at least as bad as predicted and potentially worse, what do we do? Do we take all of our money out our bank and put it under our mattress or bury it in the yard and hope Fido doesn't find it first? No.

This is the time to be smart, informed and conservative, but not to panic. Panic is what caused the bank crashes of 1929. You may ask, if people are taking their own lives and banks are failing now, why shouldn't we panic? Quite simply, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

The FDIC was created in 1933 in response to the many bank failures of the late 1920s and early 1930s. They insure all deposits up to $100,000. If your money is not in an institution that has federal insurance such as provided by the FDIC, move it there immediately.

What if i have more than $100,000?
If you have more than $100,000 , you have a few options. One more option is to spread your deposits around to as many banks as needed to keep your balances below $100,000 at each bank. The FDIC insurance covers up to $100,000 in deposits per depositor PER BANK.

If you have more than $100,000 at one bank and just love your bank, you can structure you deposit accounts to obtain as much as $300,000 in FDIC insurance coverage.

For example, Mr. and Mrs. Jones have $275,000 in CDs at their favorite bank. They can change their deposits so the one is in Mr. Jones' name for $100,000, one account is in Mrs. Jones' name for $100,000 and one account is in the name of Mr. and Mrs. Jones for
$75,000. In the eyes of the FDIC, these are three separate borrowers.

According to the Georgia Banker's Association 98 percent of Georgia's banks are considered well-capitalized by regulators, 75 percent of Georgia's banks were profitable in the first quarter and no one has ever lost a penny to the FDIC insured deposits.

I will repeat what I stated he first of the year that 2008 is a year to sit on the sidelines and wait for things to recover. At the beginning of the year I said that our current crisis was not as bad as 1929 because no one was jumping out of their window and no banks had failed. Well, now we know that is wrong with four suicides and seven failed banks in 2008.

But because of the FDIC, 1929 can never be repeated. However, the current economic down turn will be worse than 1999 and may surpass the Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s. As long as we all stick to the fundamentals, and don't get caught up in too good to be true get rich schemes, we will all come through this in the end. In the mean time, simply check your deposit insurance just like you would your homeowners insurance. After all, your savings most likely is second only to your home when it comes to asset value.

Jennette is a Johns Creek resident and the Johns Creek City Executive for Security Bank.

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